Premier League: Crucial Contest in Champions League Chase

Manchester City vs Aston Vila

The race for the Champions League is well and truly on.

Given the top two spots are all but secured, the European wannabees are battling it out for Premier League positions 3-5 and this clash at the Etihad Stadium could well prove pivotal as to whether outgoing champions Manchester City, Aston Villa or both make it.

With such high stakes, expect midweek Premier League 2025 highlights.

 

Talking Points

It’s fair to say it’s not just this SBOTOP observer who has been shocked by City’s fall from grace this term.

Sure, I did not expect them to retain the title – my tip was Arsenal – and the loss of world footballer of the year Rodri and key central defenders at crucial times in the campaign undoubtedly undermined their title defence.

But it still does not explain such a drop-off in form.

However, their 2-0 win at Everton on Easter Saturday firmly keeps them in control of their own destiny to secure a 15^th successive season competing in Europe’s elite club competition.

Stretching their unbeaten league run to five games, and also through to next weekend’s FA Cup semi-final, Pep Guardiola’s men may well be timing their form to perfection at a crucial stage.

Villa, though, are in the same boat and produced a superb performance to beat Newcastle United at Villa Park and lay down a marker in the race for the top five; a contest in which Ollie Watkins became Villa’s joint-top Premier League goalscorer – alongside Gabriel Agbonlahor – on 74.

As a result, Watkins became the first Villa player to score 15 or more times in three consecutive Premier League seasons.

Since the start of last season, he has both scored and assisted in eight Premier League games, with only Mohamed Salah doing so on more occasions.

Unai Emery’s side have now won 10 of their past 11 games in all competitions to propel themselves back into qualification contention and are also in the FA Cup semi-finals.

My admiration for Emery would grow even further were he to guide Villa to a second successive season in the Champions League, especially given he has worked with a much more limited budget compared to many of his compatriots.

Yet he has shaped a squad which can compete with the best, strengthened by some smart moves in the January transfer window, and they can travel to the soon-to-be deposed champions with no fear.

 

History

A traditional English football match-up, City have 81 victories overall compared to 59 Villa successes and 42 draws.

You have to go back to April 2007, a year before the Sheikh Mansour takeover, to the last time Villa won at the Etihad Stadium in the top flight – a 2-0 triumph, courtesy of goals from John Carew and Shaun Maloney.

They did win 4-2 on City soil in 2012 in a League Cup third round tie, a game won in extra-time with Agbonlahor and Charles N’Zogbia claiming the crucial goals.

Fourteen successive home league wins in this fixture include a 4-1 triumph last term when a Phil Foden hat-trick won the day after Rodri and Jhon Duran had traded early goals.

Villa have won the last two on their own turf though, including 2-1 just before Christmas when Duran and former City youngster Morgan Rogers scored the goals before Foden pulled one back in stoppage time.

Their most famous meeting this century was on the final day of the 2021-22 season; a quite brilliant triumph as City scored three times in six second half minutes to overcome a 2-0 deficit and clinch the Premier League title.

The inaugural clash was in Division One in October 1899 at Villa Park which the home side won 2-1, courtesy of goals from John Devey and Fred Wheldon (penalty).

 

Betting Tip

Our Premier League 2025 betting odds back City all the way.

This includes 1X2 @ 1.80 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.11.

Villa options range from 1X2 @ 3.56 and Asian Handicap +0.71 @ 1.80.

Another 2-1 Villa success will pay out @ 12.50 with Correct Score, while City are on offer @ 27.00 for a re-run of last season’s 4-1 meeting.

Two teams who like to attack and have a wealth of attacking talent at their disposal explains why total goal 0-1 is offered @ 4.71, compared to 2-3 @ 2.18, 4-6 @ 2.53 and over 3.25 goals @ 2.07.

I think this will be closely contested and I think Villa can end their miserable record at this ground by claiming a point.

   

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