Premier League: Can Burnley Dish Out Some Capital Punishment?

Burnley vs Chelsea

Chelsea hope to continue their climb up the Premier League table on Saturday when they open the weekend’s top flight action with a visit to Burnley.

Enzo Maresca’s Blues hit a decent run of form before the international break, four wins from five taking them up to third place in the table and they’ll fancy their chances against Scott Parker’s Clarets. The hosts sit in 17^th place after 11 games, outside the relegation zone on goal difference alone, but the Burnley boss can be reasonably pleased with that return having already faced Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Aston Villa.

In fact, after this game the Clarets will have played all the current top eight in their first  12 games, so if they are still outside the relegation zone on Sunday night then the signs are pretty good for Parker and his men.

The Blues have ambitions at the other end of the pitch of course. Liverpool’s title defence is faltering to say the least and leaders Arsenal dropped points last week. But while the Clarets’ focus is purely on survival Chelsea have to balance their priorities, and Turf Moor is never an easy place to go. And that makes Premier League: Burnley vs Chelsea a fascinating prospect.   

This is the third London club the Clarets have faced in succession. They lost to Arsenal last time at home, and came out on the wrong side of a five goal thriller away to West Ham United, a result which allowed the Hammers to draw up alongside Burnley on ten points. The Lancashire side dominated much of that clash and only rare defensive errors allowed West Ham in… so Burnley will be keen to take out their frustration on the next team from the capital they meet.

The Burnley vs Chelsea betting odds say they have a tough challenge ahead, but Burnley will make it as uncomfortable for Chelsea as they can.   

 

Talking Points

Is Fleming the answer to Burnley’s striking question?   

14 goals from 11 games isn’t a bad return for a newly promoted team, fourth placed Sunderland have scored the same, while Leeds United, a point ahead of Burnley have scored only ten. The Clarets have conceded 22, but against the teams they have faced that won’t worry them and they picked up 2-0 victories over both Sunderland and Leeds.

I suspect Parker will get his defence right but his bigger challenge will be to keep scoring at this rate, and he has had some difficulty in finding the right man to lead the line. Jaydon Anthony scored four goals early on, but the winger has been quiet of late, while Lyle Foster has scored two but has been sidelined with injury. Foster’s absence gave a chance to forward Zian Flemming and he has scored three in the last three games. He scored a candidate for goal of the season in Burnley’s recent 3-2 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers and he added a second as the Clarets raced into a two goal lead.   

The Premier League’s joint top assist maker, alongside Jack Grealish and Mohammed Kudus, is Burnley wingback Quilindschy Hartman with a tally of four, and he has struck up a fruitful relationship with Fleming, so Chelsea will try to keep the two Dutch stars quiet.  

 

Saturday may be too early for Palmer

The Blues have a huge week of football coming up after they leave Burnley, with a Champions League tie against Barcelona on Tuesday before they entertain league leaders Arsenal on Sunday 30^th November. Star playmaker Cole Palmer has been sidelined with a groin injury and Maresca is unlikely to risk him in Burnley, hopeful that he will be fit to face the Blaugrana. Jamie Gittens looks likely to be okay so he could well make a start while the Blues will make assessments on Pedro Neto, who limped off in Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Wolves, and Enzo Fernandez who is carrying a knee injury.     

A little further back the value of midfield anchor Moises Caicedo can not be overestimated; he was in the SBOTOP pick of the top five teams’ most influential players and, if the game against Burnley turns out to be a battle he can put his foot on the ball and take control.   

 

History

This relationship goes way back to 1905 when Chelsea won the first meeting 1-0 and, over the next 120 years, they have played 1-6 times in total, the Blues winning 42 to the Clarets 38 and there have been 26 draws.

While the historic Burnley vs Chelsea results have been closely contested, more recently it has been a tale of London domination with Burnley’s last victory coming on the opening day of the 2017/18 campaign when the Clarets beat the 2017 champions 3-2 at Stamford Bridge. Since then Chelsea have won eight and drawn three, though two of the last four clashes ended in a draw.

In terms of recent form, Chelsea have been strong with four wins, a draw and one defeat from their last six while Burnley have won two and lost four of their last six outings.   

 

Betting Tip

With Chelsea odds on at a SBOTOP price of 1.50 this looks like an away win, but the Clarets will make it hard for the Blues and can be backed at 6.50 to win, 4.25 to Draw or the Double Chance Burnley or Draw is 2.50.

I expect this to be a tight game which I suspect Chelsea will edge but, after two tough setbacks the Clarets are desperate to take a London scalp.

   

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