La Liga: Atletico Set for a Bounceback in Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal  

After a successful week in Europe, Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are back in league action this weekend when fifth-seeded Villarreal are the visitors to the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium on Saturday. 

Atleti went top of La Liga with a win over Osasuna a week ago and then threw away their place at the summit after they lost a follow up away to Leganes. But they can return to the top with a win over the Yellow Submarine and put the pressure back on Real Madrid, who are away to Real Valladolid in the evening.   

Villarreal boss Marcelino still has his eyes on a European place. After whacking Real Mallorca 4-0 on Monday night, the Yellow Submarine cemented its position in fifth and with a six-point gap to Athletic Club in fourth. The Champions League places may be ultimately out of reach, but the Yellow Submarine can certainly keep the top four dream alive with a strong run-in.      

 

Talking Points

Alvarez in finding his feet in Madrid  

Tuesday was some night for SBOTOP football fans (me included) as the Champions League exploded into life with a glut of goals and red cards. While Barcelona were launching a stunning comeback to win 5-4 in Benfica, Atletico Madrid were fighting their own battle in a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen, a result which helped Los Rojiblancos to leapfrog Die Werkself into third place and give themselves a great chance of automatically qualifying for the knockout phase.  

Summer signing Julian Alvarez was the hero of the night with a brilliantly taken brace, the second setting the stadium alight in the 90^th minute. Piero Hincapie gave the German side a lead and he was later sent off, but that after Alvarez had showed searing pace and clinical finishing to round off a blistering counterattack. Los Rojiblancos went down to 10 men too as midfield ace Pablo Barrios saw red as tempers flared, but Alvarez was the coolest man in Spain as he rounded the Bayer keeper and rolled the ball into the empty net.

The former Manchester City man is starting to look like the forward Atleti fans were hoping for, also scoring the winner against Osasuna and in the Copa del Rey victory over Elche. His speed of foot and thought makes him a natural successor to Antoine Griezmann, who is still pulling the strings in the Rojiblancos’ creative unit, scoring seven goals and making four assists, while striker Alexander Sorloth has bagged eight goals. Alvarez is now on six in the league and has the momentum to reach double figures sooner rather than later.

Los Rojiblancos visit to Leganes on matchday 20 went all wrong, and the La Liga 2025 betting odds took a shift across the city towards the Santiago Bernabeu, but this clash with Villarreal gives Simeone’s men a chance to put things right.   

 

Villarreal’s Baena in demand  

This time last year, the Yellow Submarine was languishing in 15^th place, so to find themselves in fifth is a good comeback for sure. But Villarreal’s La Liga 2025 results have been patchy in recent weeks with the win over Mallorca just the second in six games.

Marcelino was delighted by the way his team blew their top six rivals away with a remarkable four goals in a brutal eight first half minutes. Logan Costa opened the floodgates and Alex Baena, Dani Parejom and Yeremy Pino all joined the party. It was 23-year-old attacking midfielder Baena’s sixth goal this season to add to his five assists. And with comparisons already made to England’s Phil Foden, Premier League teams have been alerted. High-flying Nottingham Forest are rumoured to be considering a move for Baena to strengthen their top four aspirations, but they would have to meet a release clause of £51 million.

That may seem a lot of money, but for a player who has been outstanding for 18 months, winning eight Spain caps and an Olympic Gold Medal, Forest may be ready to break the bank.         

 

History

With 16 wins each, Atleti and Villarreal have shared the head-to-heads equally, and there have been 15 draws. But Los Rojiblancos have dominated the last four meetings, with two wins and two draws, including a 3-1 victory at the Wanda Metropolitano in 2023.

In terms of recent form, Atletico are stronger, with five wins and one defeat from the last six, while Villarreal have won two, drawn one, and lost three. Simeone’s men are very hard to beat on home soil, in fact, they have won eight and drawn two of their 10 games at home in the league.       

 

Betting Tip

Villarreal are priced at 4.42 to win and 3.73 to draw with Los Rojiblancos at 1.57, while the Double Chance: Villarreal or Draw can be backed at 2.15.

The Yellow Submarine were outstanding against Real Mallorca, but the balance clearly lies with Simeone’s team, so strong at home and with a huge incentive to play for.     

   

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