CONCACAF Gold Cup: It’s the Final We All Expected

USA vs Mexico

Holders Mexico meet pre-tournament co-favourites USA on Sunday for a CONCACAF Gold Cup climax that has been on the cards from the outset.

My SBOTOP mate Jordan nailed it with his preview of the semi-finals when he said El Tri and the Stars and Stripes would jump the penultimate hurdle without falling, and now CONCACAF’s big two are ready to get it on at the NRG Stadium in Houston Texas.  

Javier Aguirre’s Mexico have been the most impressive team in the competition so far, playing consistently high-quality football and with an edge of ruthlessness. Meanwhile, Mauricio Pochettino’s inexperienced group has delivered when asked, holding their nerve in a quarter-final penalty shootout to boot.           

 

Talking Points

Mexico’s route to final

El Tri opened their campaign with a 3-2 victory over the Dominican Republic with goals from Edson Alvarez, Raul Jimenez, and Cesar Montes. Lokomotiv Moscow defender Montes had only scored one goal in his first 54 internationals, but he bagged a brace in a 2-0 win over Suriname to make it three in two, and the 6’5” centre-back will be a threat at set pieces.

Having already qualified, El Tri played out an easy 0-0 draw with Costa Rica as both nations coasted through to the knockouts. Mexico were the only team to navigate the quarter-finals without the need for a penalty shootout, beating Saudi Arabia 2-0, with a first goal in 19 games from Alexis Vega and a late own goal to make it a comfortable win, while the Stars and Stripes and other sweated it out with shootout drama spreading across the States.  

Aguirre’s team continued with the most impressive set of CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 results in the competition when they saw off Honduras 1-0 with a goal from Jimenez early in the second half.

While defender Montes is top scorer with three goals, Fulham striker Jimenez has led the Mexico line brilliantly, and he scored the crucial goal against Honduras with a superb finish, giving the keeper no chance.

With 41 goals in 116 internationals, the 34-year-old has been a top-level striker for over a decade, a big unit and strong in the air at 6’3”, and Jimenez has clever feet and a clinical finish.   

 

USA’s route to final

A 5-0 thumping of Trinidad and Tobago was the perfect start for Pochettino’s youngsters who were keen to show what they could do without the likes of Christian Pulisic and Antonee Robinson in their ranks. PSV Eindhoven midfielder Malik Tillman scored twice against Trinidad, while Patrick Agyemang, Haji Wright, and Brenden Aaronson all got on the scoresheet. The next two games were trickier, as Crystal Palace centre-back Chris Richards scored the only goal of the game in a 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia, and then Tillman and Agyemang both scored in a 2-1 win over Haiti to make it three from three at the group stage.  

The Stars and Stripes needed a penalty shootout to survive a ding-dong battle with Costa Rica in the quarter-final, after Diego Luna and Max Arfsten had scored in a 2-2 draw. And then two goals from Luna gave the Americans a hard-fought 2-1 win over Guatemala in the semi-final.  

With three goals, alongside Malik Tillman, Luna has been one of the Stars and Stripes’ most creative sparks, and both players have made two assists. This is a breakout tournament for Luna, who plays football at Real Salt Lake City in the MLS, and at 21 years of age, he is a bright prospect who can play as an attacking midfielder or out on the wing. Luna is a natural understudy to the legendary Pulisic. Pochettino will be happy to put his faith in him at the World Cup next year.    

 

History

El Tri are going for a record 10th Gold Cup triumph, while the USA are hoping to close the gap, as they are currently on seven.   

With 15 wins to eight, the Stars and Stripes have had plenty of success in this fixture this century, and they were unbeaten in five, until Mexico won a friendly last October.

Mexico have won five and drawn one of their last six games, while USA have won five and lost one.    

 

Betting Tip

The pre-match CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 betting odds say we’re in for a tight game in Texas with the Stars and Stripes at 2.85 to win this final, the draw at 2.92, and Mexico being the favourites at 2.29.

A 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline, with 0-0 and a 1-0 Mexico win at 6.95, and I’m backing the experienced Mexicans to see this one out and Jimenez to score.   

   

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