Bayern Within Touching Distance of the Bundesliga Crown

Bayern Munich vs Mainz

The procession to the Bundesliga title for Bayern Munich starts here.

This SBOTOP writer does not mean that in a disrespectful fashion to Mainz who currently sit in sixth spot, just two points off a Champions League berth, and should prove obdurate opponents.

It’s just the Bavarians’ financial weight and pulling power have once again proved too much for the rest and they have delivered Bundesliga 2025 highlights aplenty.

The disappointment of last week’s Champions League quarter-final exit may linger for a wee while yet, but retaining the crown as Germany’s number one is far from a consolation prize.

 

Talking Points

Cast your mind back to last summer when now England boss Thomas Tuchel decided enough was enough.

Finding a replacement was far from straightforward but, in the end, they opted for Vincent Kompany although, if reports were to be believed, the man in charge of Burnley, relegated from the English Premier League last season, was far from their first choice.

Eleven months on and the Belgian is on the verge of achieving the club’s number one aim; to wrestle back the title from the ‘invincibles’ of Bayer Leverkusen who were quite superb last term and went unbeaten – a period of 462 days and 35 games, stretching back to the final day of the 2022-23 season – as they clinched a league and cup double.

Any chance Leverkusen had of retaining the title ended last weekend when they could only draw at St Pauli; a result which, coupled with Bayern’s win at Heidenheim 24 hours earlier, gave them an eight point advantage at the summit.

Mainz, meanwhile, were denied three points by conceding a late equaliser at home to Wolfsburg. Victory in that contest would have moved them up to fourth but, in the end, they slipped to a fifth game in a row without a win.

Once again, their main threat was Jae-sung Lee.

The South Korean international not only scored Mainz’s equaliser but was instrumental in their second-half dominance with his intelligent movement and creative passing a constant threat to the Wolfsburg defence.

A player with a work rate and tactical discipline instrumental in their overall game plan, he consistently troubled Bayern earlier this season and is likely to be their danger man again.

As for Bayern, they can even avoid a defeat in this one and still hold a healthy advantage. It’s difficult to envisage mind.

 

History

Mainz have eight victories to cherish against the Bavarian giants compared to three draws and 30 Bayern successes.

The most recent Mainz win was earlier this season, a 2-1 win when Lee was the star of the show with a double. Leroy Sane pulled one back for Bayern late on.

That eased the pain of the hiding Bayern imposed on Mainz in the corresponding fixture last season; an 8-1 romp when England captain Harry Kane netted a hat-trick, Leon Goretzka grabbed a brace and Thomas Muller, Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry found the net.

Nadiem Amiri had briefly given Mainz hope in the first half.

Mainz last won on Bayern soil in March 2016 when Jhon Cordoba scored an 86th minute winner in a 2-1 success.

Their very first meeting came in the German Cup in December 1999, a tie won 3-0 by the giants on home soil, courtesy of an own goal, Carsten Jancker and Roque Santa Cruz goals.

 

Betting Tip

While I don’t expect this to be anything like the one-sided encounter I covered between the sides more than five year ago, it is hard to ignore the Bundesliga 2025 betting odds which strongly back the hosts to edge closer to the title.

Even if goalkeeper Jonas Urbig and Muller, who sat out training on Wednesday as they felt ‘under the weather’, don’t return, the strength of squad at Kompany’s disposal is telling and is reflected in odds which include 1X2 @ 1.22 and Asian Handicap -2.25 @ 2.28.

Mainz, meanwhile, can earn you a very tidy pay day indeed with victory of which there are options such as 1X2 @ 8.60 and Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 2.13.

The draw is on offer @ 6.00, while another 2-1 Mainz win will see you secure a bumper pay out @ 32.00 with Correct Score.

I do think Bayern will prevail and have considered Half Time Full Time Draw Home Home @ 4.68, but instead I am going to plump for the unusual tip, for me anyway, of an actual score.

Therefore, my *** tip is Correct Score 2-1 @ 9.40 as Kompany, Kane (in what would be his first ever major team trophy) and co edge nearer becoming top dogs in Deustchland again.

   

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