World Cup 2026: Italy are Plotting a Late Hijack in Group I

Moldova vs Italy

Italy need a miracle to qualify directly for the World Cup 2026, as Norway have a three-point cushion at the top of Group I. Gennaro Gattuso’s side must win their next two qualifying matches and hope that Norway drop points in theirs.

The Azzurri are set to take on Moldova this Thursday night at the Zimbru Stadium, and this is considered a winnable game for them. Moldova are at the bottom of Group I with only one point after the first six matchdays, though they recently held Estonia to a 1-1 draw in their last international match.

If Italy don’t beat Moldova, a more difficult qualifying path awaits them. By taking the second berth in Group I, the Azzurri will advance to the inter-confederation play-offs, where they’ll fight for scraps against other teams from other regions.

Without further ado, here’s today’s SBOTOP preview of this contest.

 

Talking Points

Moldova receive attacking boost

Lilian Popescu will have a slightly stronger squad against Italy, as two of Moldova’s best attackers are back in the mix. After missing out last month due to fitness concerns, veteran midfielder Artur Ionita is expected to register his 80th cap on Thursday and will likely join captain Vadim Rata in the middle of the park. On the other hand, Ion Nicolaescu – the nation’s all-time leading scorer with 17 goals in 54 caps – has recovered from a back injury.

Nicolaescu currently plays for Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israeli Premier League, where they’re second in the table. The 27-year-old forward is Moldova’s best hope, especially since he averages one goal every three international games. Moldova’s main absentee will be versatile midfielder Nichita Motpan, who is dealing with an injury.

Because they’re ranked 156th in the updated FIFA rankings, Moldova’s expectations are low. After hosting Italy, they will face 78th-ranked Israel on Sunday evening. Israel are third in Group I with nine points but have lost their last three.

 

Key ins and outs for Italy

With Italy already shifting towards a potential inter-confederation play-off next spring, Italy head coach Gennaro Gattuso suggested he will deploy an altered squad against Moldova.

Nicolo Barella is surely omitted, as the Inter Milan playmaker must serve a one-match ban. Roma’s in-form midfielder Bryan Cristante will likely take Barella’s spot in the starting XI.

Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori are also out due to injury, opening the door for Bologna’s Nicolo Cambiaghi and Atalanta’s Gianluca Scamacca. Federico Chiesa also withdrew to stay in Liverpool, so Mateo Retegui, who already has five goals and four assists in the qualifiers, is back in the fold. Since succeeding Luciano Spalletti in the summer, Gattuso has led the Azzurri to four straight wins while racking up 16 goals.

On the other side of the pitch, Cagliari goalkeeper Elia Caprile has received his first national team call-up, and Napoli centre-back Alessandro Buongiorno will return after recovering from a leg injury.

 

History

Thursday marks the seventh competitive encounter between Moldova and Italy. As expected, the Azzurri won all six previous matches, including a 2-0 result last June in the reverse fixture. 

As mentioned, Moldova drew 1-1 with Estonia last time out, halting a seven-match losing streak. At one point during their barren run, Moldova suffered a chastening 11-1 defeat against Norway, their worst-ever loss, prompting Serghei Clescenco to resign as the national team’s head coach after four years in charge. Former U-19s boss Lilian Popescu took over, and he has yet to lose a meaningful game. 

Having twice faltered in the UEFA qualifiers, Italy failed to qualify for the last two World Cups in Russia and Qatar, so they will look to end their drought this time around.

 

Betting Tip

The World Cup 2026 odds are so lopsided in favour of the visitors. Besides our recommended bet, Italy are expected to beat Moldova by as early as halftime, priced at -1.50 at 2.21 in the First Half Asian Handicap market. Going for Over 3.75 could also yield a healthy 2.08 payday, with the Azzurri likely to make more World Cup 2026 highlights. A Correct Score of 2-0 in favour of Italy – the result of their previous encounter in the UEFA qualifiers – is on offer at 5.60. However, any score that gives Moldova a point could yield a staggering payday of at least 32.00. A win for the hosts is also considered a long shot, as the Correct Scores of 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 in their favour are pegged at 115.00, 225.00, and 220.00, respectively.

   

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