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Bundesliga: Odds Are Stacked Against Them, but One Team Could Challenge Bayern’s Superiority

If Bundesliga action is what you crave, the wait will soon be over.

Yes, I know there’s well over a month until the start of the new campaign and the return of Bundesliga 2025 highlights, but SBOTOP fans can now count down the days, beginning with the curtain raiser to the new campaign.

On August 16, hosts and German Cup holders Stuttgart will welcome the Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in the inaugural Franz Beckenbauer Supercup.

The annual Supercup, which features the winners of the previous season’s two domestic titles, was officially renamed in honour of the late Beckenbauer last December, with the first edition bearing the German football legend’s name to be played at Stuttgart’s MHP Arena.

The Kaiser’s boyhood club, Bayern, are set to compete for the Supercup for the 14th time after they reclaimed the Bundesliga title last season.

Looking at our Bundesliga 2025 betting odds, no-one is expecting any rivals to go close to matching them next term either.

The Bavarians were thoroughly deserving of the title, were in first place ever since just the third week of the campaign and chalked up 25 wins from 34 matches – only losing twice – and scoring a league-high 99 goals.

And that proves my long-held view.

For as good as Bayer Leverkusen were during their title defence last season, losing only three out of 34 matches, they could simply not compete and ultimately finished 13 points off the pace.

Since then, they have been significantly weakened with Jonathan Tah heading to Bayern on a free transfer, while Die Werkself recently sold Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz to Liverpool for almost €200 million.

That amount of money could help their rebuilding efforts, provided they manage their funds well.

So far, they have brought in goalkeeper Mark Flekken from Brentford to bolster their goalkeeping depth. They have also recruited Ibrahim Maza, Tim Oermann, Artem Stepanov and Francis Onyeka but, honestly, is that really enough to sustain a title challenge?

Certainly a serious rebuild awaits, although after saying farewell to Xabi Alonso, they have brought in a proven and successful manager in his stead.

Former Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag plays a different style of football than his predecessor so it may take a while, but he is successful wherever he goes and the Dutchman has an uncanny ability to win trophies.

Only yesterday, he brought in US international Malik Tillman, the former Bayern Munich youngster turned US international who has moved from PSV Eindhoven.

It follows a total of 33 goals and assists which helped PSV win back-to-back Eredivisie titles and he has signed a five-year contract at the BayArena.

Realistically, Leverkusen, do not have the squad to push Bayern all the way as Ten Hag is inheriting a weaker group than the one from last season.

They could capitalise early on though and, if so, who knows what will happen.

For example, Bayern will not have had a proper pre-season after competing in the World Club Championship in America, where they reached the quarter-finals.

Furthermore, their star playmaker Jamal Musiala is out for an extended period with a fibula fracture.

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich's Jamal Musiala is expected to be sidelined for a long period of time
Jamal Musiala suffered a n injury during Bayern Munich’s Club World Cup match against Paris Saint-Germain

The returns of defenders Alphonso Davies and Hiroki Ito following respective knee and foot surgeries is a big boost for Vincent Kompany’s men but, if Ten Hag can guide his new charges to a superb start, Bayern may have to play catch-up.

Leverkusen head to Brazil this week for a training camp and have friendlies arranged against Flamengo under 20s, Bochum, Fortuna Sittard, Pisa and Chelsea.

Results matter not a jot in pre-season but, do well in those, and the boost they could have going into the competitive action could provide early season momentum.

As for the standard of the German top flight generally, if reports are correct, the league has received a boost in recent days with the news that a total of €1.346 billion per season has been allocated as part of the upcoming domestic TV rights cycle.

This cycle, which will begin from next season and will last until the end of the 2028/29 campaign, will be divided amongst the Bundesliga sides based on several criteria.

Fifty per cent of the money will be split equally, meaning each of the sides will receive €25.5 million, then 43% will be divided based on sporting performance over the past five to 10 years.

The remaining four per cent is based on the use of young players, and the final three per cent based on the interest in the clubs.

While extremely attractive, it still should be put in perspective when you consider the Premier League will earn the equivalent of €7.76 billion per season.

Germany’s strongest will continue to shine, of course, but this perhaps best illustrates why, Bayern aside, even the second and third best teams may struggle to keep hold of their top talent and compete on the European stage.

   

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